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FRIDAY'S FREE PICK

Returning with the Video Report on Saturday.

I'm on a 692-634-27 roll with comp plays (27-14-2 L/42 overall; 12-3-1 NFL roll) the past 784 days after cashing with USC in college hoops Thursday.

Not much to choose from on this Friday card, but I'm going to take a shot with South Dakota State (+4' to +5) at Colorado. 

Nice value here as this line has moved up from its overnight price of +2 1/2.

The Jackrabbits are off to a 9-4 start that includes a 6-4 SU record against D-1 teams. But the numbers that really count in this matchup are these: According to KenPom.com they've played the 72nd toughest schedule in the country compared to Colorado's rank of 251. 

South Dakota has notched wins against Iowa and Ole Miss and played Kansas, Wyoming and Wichita State. You think a trip to Boulder is going to intimidate this team? 

Colorado has lost three of four after opening the season 5-0 against a bunch of cupcakes. First came a loss at Colorado State. The Buffs rebounded at home against a bad New Mexico team in the midst of a 1-5 slump before getting crushed at Xavier, 96-69, last Saturday and then returning home Tuesday to lose outright as an 8 1/2-point chalk to San Diego in their last game, 69-59. In that contest they shot just 25.9 percent from the field and misfired on 15-of-18 three-point tries. 

South Dakota can put points on the board; it averages 82.4 points on 46.3 percent shooting. The Jackrabbits, who are led by 6-9 junior forward Mike Daum (20 ppg, 7.5 rpg), also hit at a 41.1 percent clip from beyond the arc and average 10.8 three-pointers per game. They might might hail from the lowly Summit League, but their RPI of 78 is three spots better than Colorado's in the latest rankings so why not grab the points with a visitor on a 5-1 ATS roll in non-conference action.

 


 

10 of 15 Winning Football Seasons

(NFL & College Combined)

 


 
224-177-13 NFL Roll
past five years combined
  
(FYI - 99% of my plays are rated between 5 and 15 dimes)
 

 
11-6
with highest rated 30 Dime NFL releases
past 6 1/2 years combined

Most Recent Releases

12/3/17 - LA Chargers (-13') vs. Cleveland - Loss

11/19/17 - Kansas City (-10) vs Ny Giants - Loss

11/5/17 - Dallas (-2') 28, Kansas City 17

1/18/15 - Seattle/New England Teaser - Winner
 

 
109-79-7 Run
with NFL 15 Dimers past seven seasons


 

Biggest NBA Plays Since 2009

 

15 Dime Releases

 

106-81-3 Record

 


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Steve Budin, Mathew Parker, Sean Michaels

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Al DeMarco's Rating System

Over the 25 years I've been doing this, one of the biggest misconceptions I've encountered from customers is their belief that winningpercentageactually matters in this business. Bottom line is that a straight-up winning percentage means absolutely nothing when your handicapper - such as myself - releases rated selections. Read further and you'll understand why.

 

I use the "dime" rating system, going in 5 dime increments, generally keeping those plays between 5 and 50 dimes. Yes, that's a wide range, but truth be told, I usually max out around 30 dimes, rarely venturing into the rarefied air toward 50 dimes unless I've built a substantial bankroll. Doing anything different would be irresponsible bankroll management on my part and a total disservice toward you, my clients.

 

I like to keep it simple from a money-management system so my customers can always know exactly how they should beallocatingtheir bankroll in proportion to the rating I assign to a selection.

 

Obviously, a 50 Dime play is five times stronger than a 10 Dime release and twice as strong as a 25 Dime pick.

 

And each day when you see my compiling or mentioning my NET profit figures, keep in mind I've computing them based on the following formula:

 

Net Profit = Wins - Losses- Vig

 

Of course let's not forget my golden rule of gambling: Never bet more than you can afford to lose. No rating system - including mine - is effective unless you pay attention to that rule. By heeding my advice you can never fall into a financial abyss from which there is no escape.

 

A question gamblers always pose is "How much should I be playing?" Obviously, there is no set, firm answer, but my advice would be to follow my money management system and base the size of your wagers on a percentage of your total bankroll.

 

Let me explain further...

 

Take your total bankroll - the amount you can afford to lose in an absolute worst case scenario on a single day. Let's say it's $400 on a college football Saturday. And on that Saturday I release a 50 Dime play and two 20 Dime picks.

 

Let's do some quick math...I've got atotalof 90 dimes of action on the table (one 50 dime play and two 20 dimers).  You've got amaximum one-day bankrollof $400. Simply divide the $400 by the 90 dimes and you've got a per dime wager of $4.44.

 

Now it's time for some simple multiplication. If a dime is worth $4.44, my 50 Dime rated release equals approximately a $222 wager on your part. And my two 20 Dime rates picks equal approximately $88.88 wagers each. Add everything back up and you've got your initial $400 bankroll all over again.

 

This obviously all applies to a single wagering day. It's up to you to figure out how to allocate your bankroll over the course of a week or month.

 

Now, back to how inconsequential winning percentages can be: Let's say I have a 50 Dime play and three 10 Dime releases on an NFL Sunday. If I win the 50 Dime play and go 0-3 with the 10 Dime releases, my overall record is a dismal 1-3 but my net profit is a healthy 17 dimes. Conversely, let's say I lose the 50 Dime play and go 3-0 with the 10 Dime releases. My overall record is an impressive 3-1, but my net profit is a negative -25 dimes.

 

Which would you prefer, the losing record and winning day, or the winning record or losing day?

 

Believe what you want, but I'm telling you the truth: Winning percentage means nothing in this business as the above illustration will prove time and time again. Of course, crafty salesmen masquerading as handicappers can spin gold using the second scenario, but I feel it's my job to educate you about what is the TRUTH in this business - whether you become my customer or not.

Free Pick Video Brandon Lang
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All Sports Included -

Nothing Further to Buy!


(Any "Guarantee" applying to

Guaranteed Plays and Resulting

Free Service is NOT included)


Steve Budin, Mathew Parker, Sean Michaels

Matt Rivers,

Dom Chambers (NHL) and Gabe DuPont (NHL) 

do NOT release plays everyday


Trace Adams' Pay After You Win Plays

(which are NEVER Best Bets)

are not included


Upgrade From One Package To Another at Anytime

Instant Rebates Available Upon Upgrades!

Mobile Promotions and Private Discounts Discount Picks
Time Teams Score Stat Open Hilton Grande Carib CRIS Coast
NFL WEEK 15 Saturday, December 16th
4:30 PM 303 Chicago
304 Detroit
    44u12
-5-09
44
-4½
44
-5½-05
43½
-5
44u12
-5-09
43½
-4½
8:25 PM 305 La Chargers
306 Kansas City
    -1-05
46
46½
pk
-1-15
46
-1
46
-1-05
46
-1
46½
NFL WEEK 15 Sunday, December 17th
1:00 PM 307 Philadelphia
308 Ny Giants
    -7½-05
40½
-7½+ev
40½
-7½+ev
40½o15
-7½
40½
-7½-05
40½
-7½
40
1:00 PM 309 Green Bay
310 Carolina
    47u14
-3-05
47
-3+ev
47
-3-05
47
-2½-25
47u14
-3-05
47
-3+ev
1:00 PM 311 Cincinnati
312 Minnesota
    42
-11-09
42
-11
42
-11
42
-10½
42
-11-09
42
-10½
1:00 PM 313 Miami
314 Buffalo
    38½
-3-15
39½
-3-20
39u15
-3-15
38½
-3-15
38½
-3-15
38½
-3-20
1:00 PM 315 Houston
316 Jacksonville
    38
-11-05
38
-11
38
-11½-05
39
-11½
38
-11-05
38½
-11
1:00 PM 317 Ny Jets
318 New Orleans
    47½
-15½
47½
-15½
47½
-16-05
47½
-15½
47½
-15½
47½
-16
1:00 PM 319 Arizona
320 Washington
    41½
-3½
41
-4
41½
-4
42u15
-4½
41½
-3½
41
-4
1:00 PM 321 Baltimore
322 Cleveland
    -7-09
41
-7
41
-7
41
-7
40½
-7-09
41
-6½
40½
4:05 PM 323 La Rams
324 Seattle
    47½u15
-2½-08
47½
-2
47½o15
-2
47½
-2
47½u15
-2½-08
47½
-1½
4:25 PM 325 New England
326 Pittsburgh
    -3-01
54
-3+ev
54½
-3+ev
54o15
-3-05
54
-3-01
54
-3
54
4:25 PM 327 Tennessee
328 San Francisco
    45½u15
-1½
45
-1
45
-1
45
-1½
45½u15
-1½
45
-1½
8:30 PM 329 Dallas
330 Oakland
    -3-15
44½o19
-3
45½
-3-05
45½
-3
46
-3-15
44½o19
-3-15
45½
NFL WEEK 15 Monday, December 18th
8:30 PM 331 Atlanta
332 Tampa Bay
    -6-12
49u15
-6½
48½
-6-15
48½
-6
48½
-6-12
49u15
-6½
48½
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