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MONDAY'S FREE PICK

I'm on a 638-593-24 roll (48-39-2 L/89) with complimentary plays the past 750 days after going 3-1 on Saturday (Winners - TCU, Central Florida, Virginia; Loser - San Diego State) and then 1-3 on Sunday (Winner - Texans; Losers - Packers, Chiefs, Redskins).

As discussed on my home page, it's really tough to handicap the side selection of tonight's Tennessee-Indianapolis game without knowing just how healthy Marcus Mariota is. Yes, he's listed as probable and is expected to start after missing last Sunday's loss to Miami with a hamstring injury he suffered in the humiliating 57-14 loss Houston October 1,  but just how healthy is he? For a guy whose mobility is such a big part of his game, that's a big unknown for me. 

That would lead you to believe Indianapolis is the lock of all locks, especially since the Colts are on a 16-1 SU series roll with nine straight wins - seven with Andrew Luck at the helm and the other two quarterbacked by Dan Orlovsky and Josh Freeman - but with a defense that allows a league-high 31.8 points, is getting a touchdown on the road enough, especially considering how they fold in the fourth quarter (NFL-high 64 points allowed)?

I'm not sure so instead I'll take a pass and instead turn to Game 3 of the ALCS and take a shot with the Astros (+125) and Charlie Morton over the Yankees and CC Sabathia.

I'm not in love with the play, but it's hard to ignore the Astros at +money in this spot despite New York's 3-0 home playoff record to date.

I realize New York has been here before, down 2-0 just as it was in the ALDS against Cleveland. Difference being the Astros are 54-29 on the road this year and that counters the Yankees' 54-30 record in the Bronx.

CC Sabathia pitched okay in his two starts against the Tribe (9.2 IP, 8 H, 6 R, 14 K), but let's face it, five-or-so innings is all Joe Girardi needs before turning loose his excellent bullpen. 

Charlie Morton's first postseason start last Monday at Boston didn't last long (4.1 IP, 7 H, 2 R), but keep in mind he closed the regular season with a 3.03 ERA in his final 12 starts with 80 strikeouts in 71.1 innings.

In Morton's lone start against New York this season he struck out 10 and allowed four runs on four hits over 5.2 innings to earn a win at Yankee Stadium on May 14.

 


 

10 of 15 Winning Football Seasons

(NFL & College Combined)

 


 
217-172-13 NFL Roll
past five years combined
  
(FYI - 99% of my plays are rated between 5 and 15 dimes)
 

 
10-4
with highest rated 30 Dime NFL releases
past five years combined

Most Recent Release

1/18/15 - Seattle/New England Teaser - Winner
 

 
104-77-7 Run
with NFL 15 Dimers past seven seasons


 

Biggest NBA Plays Since 2009

 

15 Dime Releases

 

100-74-3 Record

 


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Steve Budin, Mathew Parker, Sean Michaels

Matt Rivers,

Dom Chambers (NHL) and Gabe DuPont (NHL) 

do NOT release plays everyday


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(which are NEVER Best Bets)

are not included


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Al DeMarco's Rating System

Over the 25 years I've been doing this, one of the biggest misconceptions I've encountered from customers is their belief that winningpercentageactually matters in this business. Bottom line is that a straight-up winning percentage means absolutely nothing when your handicapper - such as myself - releases rated selections. Read further and you'll understand why.

 

I use the "dime" rating system, going in 5 dime increments, generally keeping those plays between 5 and 50 dimes. Yes, that's a wide range, but truth be told, I usually max out around 30 dimes, rarely venturing into the rarefied air toward 50 dimes unless I've built a substantial bankroll. Doing anything different would be irresponsible bankroll management on my part and a total disservice toward you, my clients.

 

I like to keep it simple from a money-management system so my customers can always know exactly how they should beallocatingtheir bankroll in proportion to the rating I assign to a selection.

 

Obviously, a 50 Dime play is five times stronger than a 10 Dime release and twice as strong as a 25 Dime pick.

 

And each day when you see my compiling or mentioning my NET profit figures, keep in mind I've computing them based on the following formula:

 

Net Profit = Wins - Losses- Vig

 

Of course let's not forget my golden rule of gambling: Never bet more than you can afford to lose. No rating system - including mine - is effective unless you pay attention to that rule. By heeding my advice you can never fall into a financial abyss from which there is no escape.

 

A question gamblers always pose is "How much should I be playing?" Obviously, there is no set, firm answer, but my advice would be to follow my money management system and base the size of your wagers on a percentage of your total bankroll.

 

Let me explain further...

 

Take your total bankroll - the amount you can afford to lose in an absolute worst case scenario on a single day. Let's say it's $400 on a college football Saturday. And on that Saturday I release a 50 Dime play and two 20 Dime picks.

 

Let's do some quick math...I've got atotalof 90 dimes of action on the table (one 50 dime play and two 20 dimers).  You've got amaximum one-day bankrollof $400. Simply divide the $400 by the 90 dimes and you've got a per dime wager of $4.44.

 

Now it's time for some simple multiplication. If a dime is worth $4.44, my 50 Dime rated release equals approximately a $222 wager on your part. And my two 20 Dime rates picks equal approximately $88.88 wagers each. Add everything back up and you've got your initial $400 bankroll all over again.

 

This obviously all applies to a single wagering day. It's up to you to figure out how to allocate your bankroll over the course of a week or month.

 

Now, back to how inconsequential winning percentages can be: Let's say I have a 50 Dime play and three 10 Dime releases on an NFL Sunday. If I win the 50 Dime play and go 0-3 with the 10 Dime releases, my overall record is a dismal 1-3 but my net profit is a healthy 17 dimes. Conversely, let's say I lose the 50 Dime play and go 3-0 with the 10 Dime releases. My overall record is an impressive 3-1, but my net profit is a negative -25 dimes.

 

Which would you prefer, the losing record and winning day, or the winning record or losing day?

 

Believe what you want, but I'm telling you the truth: Winning percentage means nothing in this business as the above illustration will prove time and time again. Of course, crafty salesmen masquerading as handicappers can spin gold using the second scenario, but I feel it's my job to educate you about what is the TRUTH in this business - whether you become my customer or not.

Free Pick Video Brandon Lang
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All Sports Included -

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(Any "Guarantee" applying to

Guaranteed Plays and Resulting

Free Service is NOT included)


Steve Budin, Mathew Parker, Sean Michaels

Matt Rivers,

Dom Chambers (NHL) and Gabe DuPont (NHL) 

do NOT release plays everyday


Trace Adams' Pay After You Win Plays

(which are NEVER Best Bets)

are not included


Upgrade From One Package To Another at Anytime

Instant Rebates Available Upon Upgrades!

Mobile Promotions and Private Discounts Discount Picks
Time Teams Score Stat Open Hilton Grande Carib CRIS Coast
COLLEGE FOOTBALL Thursday, October 19th
8:00 PM 303 Memphis
304 Houston U
    61½
-3-05
 
-2½
 
-3-05
 
-2½-15
61½
-3-05
 
-3+ev
7:30 PM 305 Ul Lafayette
306 Arkansas State
    64
-12½
 
-12½
 
-13
 
-13-05
64
-12½
 
-12½
COLLEGE FOOTBALL Friday, October 20th
6:00 PM 307 Western Kentucky
308 Old Dominion
    -9½
49
-9½
 
-9½
 
-9½
 
-9½
49
 
 
7:00 PM 309 Marshall
310 Middle Tenn St
    -2½
49½
-2½
 
-2½-05
 
-2½
 
-2½
49½
-2½
 
9:30 PM 311 Air Force
312 Nevada
    -6
64½
-5½
 
-5½
 
-5½
 
-6
64½
-5½
 
10:15 PM 313 Colorado State
314 New Mexico
    -7½
59½
-7½
 
-7-15
 
-7-15
 
-7½
59½
-7½
 
COLLEGE FOOTBALL Saturday, October 21st
12:00 PM 315 Iowa
316 Northwestern
    47½
pk
-1
 
 
-1
 
-1
47½
pk
 
pk
12:00 PM 317 Tulsa
318 Connecticut
    -6
71½
-6
 
-6
 
-6
 
-6
71½
 
 
2:00 PM 319 Troy
320 Georgia State
    -8½
47
-9
 
 
 
-9
 
-8½
47
 
 
4:00 PM 321 SMU
322 Cincinnati U
    -8½
65
-9
 
 
 
-8½
 
-8½
65
 
 
5:00 PM 323 North Texas
324 Florida Atlantic
    63½
-4½
 
-4½
 
-4
 
-3-15
63½
-4½
 
 
2:30 PM 325 Buffalo U
326 Miami Ohio
    49
-3-05
 
 
 
 
 
-3-05
49
-3-05
 
 
12:00 PM 327 Akron
328 Toledo
    56½
-14½
 
-15
 
 
 
-14½
56½
-14½
 
 
2:00 PM 329 Kent State
330 Ohio
    48½
-19½
 
-19½
 
-19½
 
-19½
48½
-19½
 
 
2:00 PM 331 No Illinois
332 Bowling Green
    -13½
52
-13
 
-13
 
-13
 
-13½
52
 
 
2:00 PM 333 Western Michigan
334 Eastern Michigan
    -4
49
-3½
 
 
 
-4
 
-4
49
 
 
3:30 PM 335 Indiana
336 Michigan State
    44½
-7-15
 
-7
 
-7
 
-7-15
44½
-7-15
 
-7
6:30 PM 337 UAB
338 Charlotte
    -7½
50½
-7½
 
-7-15
 
-7
 
-7½
50½
 
 
12:00 PM 339 Temple
340 Army
    48
-5½
 
-6
 
-5½
 
-5½
48
-5½
 
-6
7:00 PM 341 BYU
342 East Carolina
    -5½
55
-5½
 
-5½
 
-5½
 
-5½
55
-5½
 
12:00 PM 343 Purdue
344 Rutgers
    -8
47½
-9½
 
-8
 
-8
 
-8
47½
-8½
 
12:20 PM 345 Pittsburgh U
346 Duke
    52
-8
 
-8
 
-8
 
-8
52
-8
 
-8
3:30 PM 347 Syracuse
348 Miami Florida
    57½
-15
 
-15
 
-14½
 
-14½
57½
-15
 
-14½
3:00 PM 349 Central Michigan
350 Ball State
    -2½
48½
-2½
 
 
 
-3
 
-2½
48½
 
 
7:30 PM 351 Wake Forest
352 Georgia Tech
    48
-6½
 
-6½
 
 
 
-6½
48
-6½
 
 
3:30 PM 353 Coastal Carolina
354 Appalachian St
    54½
-23½
 
-24
 
 
 
-23½
54½
-23½
 
 
7:30 PM 355 Michigan
356 Penn State
    42
-10
 
-9½
 
-10-05
 
-10
42
-9

-10-05
12:00 PM 357 Maryland
358 Wisconsin
    54
-24
 
-24
 
-24
 
-24
54
-24
 
-24
3:30 PM 359 North Carolina
360 Virginia Tech
    51½
-21
 
-21
 
-21
 
-21
51½
-21
 
-21
12:30 PM 361 Boston College
362 Virginia
    48½
-7-05
 
-7
 
 
 
-7-05
48½
-7-05
 
 
10:15 PM 363 Wyoming
364 Boise State
    45
-13½
 
-13½
 
-13½
 
-13½
45
-13½
 
-13½
8:00 PM 365 Kansas
366 TCU
    59½
-37½
 
-37½
 
-37½
 
-37½
59½
-37½
 
-37½
7:00 PM 367 Rice
368 Tex San Antonio
    53
-20
 
-20½
 
 
 
-21½
53
-20
 
 
3:30 PM 369 Georgia Southern
370 Massachusetts
    55
-6½-15
 
-7
 
 
 
-7
55
-6½-15
 
 
3:30 PM 371 Central Florida
372 Navy
    -8
66
-8
 
-8½
 
-8½
 
-8
66
-8
 
12:00 PM 373 Idaho
374 Missouri
    62½
-16
 
-15½
 
-15
 
-14
62½
-16
 
 
4:00 PM 375 Kentucky
376 Mississippi St
    54
-10½
 
-10½
 
-10½
 
-10½
54
-10½
 
-10½
7:00 PM 377 South Florida
378 Tulane
    -12½
55½
-12
 
-12-15
 
-12½
 
-12½
55½
-12½
 
6:00 PM 379 Utah State
380 Unlv
    61½
-4½
 
-4½
 
-4
 
-4½
61½
-4½
 
-5
7:00 PM 381 Southern Miss
382 Louisiana Tech
    55½
-1½
 
-2
 
-1½
 
-1½
55½
-1½
 
-1½
4:00 PM 383 Oregon
384 Ucla
    70½
-6½-15
 
-7
 
-7-05
 
-7-05
70½
-6½-15
 
-7-05
8:00 PM 385 Arizona U
386 California
    -3
59
-3
 
-2½
 
-2½
 
-3
59
-3
 
3:30 PM 387 Illinois
388 Minnesota U
    48½
-13½
 
-14
 
-14-05
 
-14
48½
-13½
 
-14
3:30 PM 389 Tennessee U
390 Alabama
    50½
-34½
 
-35
 
-34½
 
-34½
50½
-34½
 
-35
12:00 PM 391 Oklahoma State
392 Texas
    -7½-05
65½
-7½
 
-7½
 
-7½
 
-7½-05
65½
-7½
 
8:00 PM 393 West Virginia
394 Baylor
    -9
71
-9½
 
-9
 
-9
 
-9
71
-9
 
7:30 PM 395 Auburn
396 Arkansas
    -15½
54½
-14½
 
 
 
-14½
 
-15½
54½
 
 
12:00 PM 397 Louisville
398 Florida State
    58
-6½
 
-6½
 
-6½
 
-6½
58
-6½
 
-6½
5:00 PM 399 Ul Monroe
400 South Alabama
    60½
-4
 
-3½
 
 
 
 
60½
-4
 
 
7:30 PM 401 USC
402 Notre Dame
    60½
-4
 
-3½
 
-3½
 
-3½
60½
-4
 
-3½
4:00 PM 403 Oklahoma
404 Kansas State
    -12½
59
-12
 
-12
 
-12½
 
-12½
59
-12½
 
7:15 PM 405 LSU
406 Mississippi
    -6½
59½
-6½
 
-6½-15
 
-7
 
-6½
59½
-7-05
 
12:00 PM 407 Iowa State
408 Texas Tech
    71
-6
 
-5½
 
-6
 
-6
71
-6
 
-5½
3:30 PM 409 Arizona State
410 Utah
    56
-9
 
-9½
 
 
 
-8½
56
-9
 
 
10:45 PM 411 Colorado
412 Washington State
    56½
-10½
 
-11
 
-10½
 
-10½
56½
-10½
 
-10½
10:30 PM 413 Fresno State
414 San Diego State
    47½
-7½
 
-7½
 
-7½
 
-7½
47½
-7½
 
-7½
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