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SUNDAY'S FREE PICK

I'm on a 542-493-22 roll the past 612 days with complimentary plays, going 11-2 since last Tuesday (11-1 in the NBA), despite last night's loser on Arizon s the Diamondbacks allowed three runs in the ninth to lose at home to Colorado.

Game Seven in LA today and I'm reluctantly backing the Clippers (-3') at home against Utah.

These teams are dead even this season with identical 54-34 records. Yes, the Jazz won Games One and Five at the Staples Center, but taking Game Seven on the road after you totally choked at home in Game Six....well, that's another story.

I've had a strong postseason so far both with premium plays and comp selections, but on Friday I was so wrong with my 15 Dime Best Bet on Utah at home. The Jazz were thoroughly outplayed, down by two at the half, by 12 with three minutes to play and never really in the game at all. 

Sure, Gordon Hayward had 31 points and seven rebounds, George Hill added 22 and Rudy Gobert chipped in with 15 points and nine boards. But Joe Johnson - so steady in the series - was 3-for-8 from the field for nine points. Rodney Hood, who had 16 points in Utah's Game Five road upset, finished with four points and went 0-for-6 on three-pointers. The Jazz shot 41 percent overall and 7-for-26 with three-pointers.

Chris Paul, to no one's surprise, fueled the Clippers with 29 points. But Doc Rivers also made a move by using a three-guard line-up, starting his son Austin, who although not 100 percent healthy, gave LA a more athletic team on the floor. And with Jamal Crawford playing 29 minutes off the bench the Clippers' small-ball attack was effective as the team shot 49.3 percent.

The biggest takeaway for me on Friday was the ankle injury suffered by Utah's Gobert in the third quarter. He played sparingly down the stretch. Not surprisingly LA's DeAndre Jordan grabbed eight of his series-high 18 rebounds in the fourth quarter. 

Gobert says he's good-to-go today, but did you expect him to say otherwise?

Paul is a perfect 2-0 with the Clippers at home in a Game Seven scenario. Although I believe Utah is the better team, I think the Jazz squandered their best chance to take the series on Friday.

 


 

10 of 15 Winning Football Seasons

(NFL & College Combined)

 


 
212-166-13 NFL Roll
past five years combined
  
(FYI - 99% of my plays are rated between 5 and 15 dimes)
 

 
10-4
with highest rated 30 Dime NFL releases
past five years combined

Most Recent Release

1/18/15 - Seattle/New England Teaser - Winner
 

 
103-74-7 Run
with NFL 15 Dimers past six seasons


 

Biggest NBA Plays Since 2009

 

15 Dime Releases

 

97-72-3 Record

 


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Steve Budin, Mathew Parker, Sean Michaels

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do NOT release plays everyday


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Al DeMarco's Rating System

Over the 25 years I've been doing this, one of the biggest misconceptions I've encountered from customers is their belief that winningpercentageactually matters in this business. Bottom line is that a straight-up winning percentage means absolutely nothing when your handicapper - such as myself - releases rated selections. Read further and you'll understand why.

 

I use the "dime" rating system, going in 5 dime increments, generally keeping those plays between 5 and 50 dimes. Yes, that's a wide range, but truth be told, I usually max out around 30 dimes, rarely venturing into the rarefied air toward 50 dimes unless I've built a substantial bankroll. Doing anything different would be irresponsible bankroll management on my part and a total disservice toward you, my clients.

 

I like to keep it simple from a money-management system so my customers can always know exactly how they should beallocatingtheir bankroll in proportion to the rating I assign to a selection.

 

Obviously, a 50 Dime play is five times stronger than a 10 Dime release and twice as strong as a 25 Dime pick.

 

And each day when you see my compiling or mentioning my NET profit figures, keep in mind I've computing them based on the following formula:

 

Net Profit = Wins - Losses- Vig

 

Of course let's not forget my golden rule of gambling: Never bet more than you can afford to lose. No rating system - including mine - is effective unless you pay attention to that rule. By heeding my advice you can never fall into a financial abyss from which there is no escape.

 

A question gamblers always pose is "How much should I be playing?" Obviously, there is no set, firm answer, but my advice would be to follow my money management system and base the size of your wagers on a percentage of your total bankroll.

 

Let me explain further...

 

Take your total bankroll - the amount you can afford to lose in an absolute worst case scenario on a single day. Let's say it's $400 on a college football Saturday. And on that Saturday I release a 50 Dime play and two 20 Dime picks.

 

Let's do some quick math...I've got atotalof 90 dimes of action on the table (one 50 dime play and two 20 dimers).  You've got amaximum one-day bankrollof $400. Simply divide the $400 by the 90 dimes and you've got a per dime wager of $4.44.

 

Now it's time for some simple multiplication. If a dime is worth $4.44, my 50 Dime rated release equals approximately a $222 wager on your part. And my two 20 Dime rates picks equal approximately $88.88 wagers each. Add everything back up and you've got your initial $400 bankroll all over again.

 

This obviously all applies to a single wagering day. It's up to you to figure out how to allocate your bankroll over the course of a week or month.

 

Now, back to how inconsequential winning percentages can be: Let's say I have a 50 Dime play and three 10 Dime releases on an NFL Sunday. If I win the 50 Dime play and go 0-3 with the 10 Dime releases, my overall record is a dismal 1-3 but my net profit is a healthy 17 dimes. Conversely, let's say I lose the 50 Dime play and go 3-0 with the 10 Dime releases. My overall record is an impressive 3-1, but my net profit is a negative -25 dimes.

 

Which would you prefer, the losing record and winning day, or the winning record or losing day?

 

Believe what you want, but I'm telling you the truth: Winning percentage means nothing in this business as the above illustration will prove time and time again. Of course, crafty salesmen masquerading as handicappers can spin gold using the second scenario, but I feel it's my job to educate you about what is the TRUTH in this business - whether you become my customer or not.

Free Pick Video Brandon Lang
All Access Pass
1 Day $99
7 Days $449
30 Days $999

All Sports Included -

Nothing Further to Buy!


(Any "Guarantee" applying to

Guaranteed Plays and Resulting

Free Service is NOT included)


Steve Budin, Mathew Parker, Sean Michaels

Jeff Benton, Matt Rivers,

Dom Chambers (NHL) and Gabe DuPont (NHL) 

do NOT release plays everyday


Trace Adams' Pay After You Win Plays

(which are NEVER Best Bets)

are not included


Upgrade From One Package To Another at Anytime

Instant Rebates Available Upon Upgrades!

Help Charity Play of the Week Discount Picks
Time Teams Score Stat Open Hilton Grande Carib CRIS Coast
NBA PLAYOFFS - CONFERENCE SEMIFINALS Sunday, April 30th
1:05 PM 735 Washington
736 Boston
111
123

FINAL
216
-4½-05
216
-4½
216o20
-4½
217
-4
216
-4½-05
216
-4½
3:30 PM 721 Utah
722 La Clippers
41
30
05:13
2nd Q
190½
-3½-05
190
-3½
190½
-3½-05
191
-4½-15
190½
-3½-05
191
-4
11:59 PM 717 Chicago
718 Boston


CNCLD
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
11:59 PM 719 Atlanta
720 Washington


CNCLD
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
NBA PLAYOFFS - CONFERENCE SEMIFINALS Monday, May 1st
7:05 PM 723 Toronto
724 Cleveland
    208½
-7-05
209
-6½
208½o15
-7-05
208½
-6½
208½
-7-05
209
-7
9:35 PM 725 Houston
726 San Antonio
    213
-6-05
213
-5½
213½u15
-6
213
-5½
213
-6-05
214
-5½
NBA PLAYOFFS - CONFERENCE SEMIFINALS Tuesday, May 2nd
8:00 PM 501 Washington
502 Boston
     
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
10:30 PM 503
504 Golden State
     
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
NBA PLAYOFFS - CONFERENCE SEMIFINALS Wednesday, May 3rd
7:05 PM 731 Toronto
732 Cleveland
     
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
9:35 PM 733 Houston
734 San Antonio
     
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
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