$10 Bettor Up $30,305 since November
------------------
Monday Night Winner #5 Out Of 6
NFL Winner #11 Out Of 16
This game will go down to the wire.
Let's start with the fact this is the best team Notre Dame has faced all year long.
Let's start with the fact Notre Dame hasn't beaten a top 10 team since 2012!!
Now comes the 8th ranked BYU Cougars, the undefeated Cougars at 5-0, playing on their home field getting no respect at all.
Playing at night on this home field, of which they are 28-3 SU riding an 8-game winning streak under the lights.
I get the hype surrounding Notre Dame and their 6-0 record but just look at these 6 teams with a combined record of 15-20.
Can I just take a moment to breakdown how bad these 6 teams are offensively!!
Out of 138 schools, here is where these offenses rank in Total offense: Rice (123), Michigan St (124), Stanford (122), UNC (115), Wisconsin (86) and Purdue (57).
On the other side of the ball, this BYU defense is the best defense they will see this year
I watched Michigan State go into Notre Dame with the 56th ranked defense in the country and hold the Irish to 27 points!!!!
BYU comes in with the 7th best defense in the country!!!!
Simply put, the Irish are not going to march up and down the field on the Cougars tonight.
This BYU defense will show up tonight.
I understand it's a big challenge for the BYU offense to move the ball at home.
With their leading rusher out, it will be up to Bear Bachmeier to be on point.
He is not chop liver. Last week at home against Iowa State he was 22 of 30 for 329 yards and 2 touchdowns.
I expect the kid to be solid.
Not only is BYU 8-1 ATS last 9 games versus undefeated opponents, but they are one of the best home dogs in the country.
The last 17 times as a home dog the BYU Cougars are 15-2 SU/ATS.
If Bachmeier can play a clean game and the Cougars do not lose the turnover battle:
it wouldn't surprise me if they shocked the world and win the game outright.
Give me this double digit dog all night long.
Live home doggy.
The UAB Blazers return home 3-3 after going to 0-3 on the road after a terrible 2nd half meltdown at Memphis last week.
Leading 13-10 at the half they imploded in the 2nd half getting outscored 28-0 in the 2nd half losing 38-13.
Trust me folks, they played better than that final score would lead you to believe.
Now back home, where they are undefeated this year, I believe this matchup favors them.
They have beaten La Monroe 26-20, Navy 24-20 and Samford 33-14,
Now comes a huge mountain to climb in battling East Carolina.
The Pirates dropped their first 2 games of the year at Alabama 48-10 and the home loss to Appalachian State 27-24.
They went on the road and beat Old Dominion 20-17 followed by back to back home wins over North Carolina Central 42-9 and Rice 28-12.
Let's be clear here: This isn't the offensive juggernaut they were last year as they only return 3 starters from last year's squad including their entire offensive line.
Can you really trust to lay more than a field goal with a team that averages just 219 total yards on the road?????
It's clear at this point of the season UAB is a better home team than on the road and this being homecoming and a national TV game, the crowd will be electric.
THE MONDAY NIGHT KING IS BACK
Now 4-1 On Monday Night’s
75 Dime Bankroll Builder #5 In A Row
Bills (+3’) 37-34 Outright over Rams
--------------
10-4 IN THE NFL THIS YEAR
$10 Bettor Has Made $4,250
-----------
Can't pass up the points.
When it comes to the NFC West, Bills QB Josh Allen has been pure money.
In 9 matchups he is 7-2 SU and ATS.
The 3 times he has gotten points, he is a perfect 3-0 ATS.
Which brings us to tonight.
Now everyone says the Rams have played the tougher schedule but I tend to disagree.
They got destroyed by the Niners 27-7, beat an offensively challenged Giants team at home that lost starting QB Jaxon Dart in the 1st quarter.
Lost at Denver giving up 30 points to an offensively challenged Broncos team.
And had to come back and beat an Eagles team that gave up 27 points to a backup QB in Chicago 2 weeks ago.
Buffalo on the other hand went into Houston and put up 36 on a Texans defense that some expected to be the best in the NFL.
They then came home and hung up 41 on the Lions. They overcame 5 turnovers to come back and beat the Chargers and even cover the 7 1/2 winning 24-16.
Then last week they lost a shootout with a division rival in New England 29-26.
It's because of the loss to the Patriots the value of more than a field goal is created in this game and it's value I will not pass up.
I will gladly take the points in a game I feel will be decided by a field goal.
This doggy barks loud and clear in La La land tonight.
The absolute best play on the board.
First and foremost, this New England Patriots team as a whole isn't very good.
Last year with the easiest schedule in the NFL, they rode that to the Super bowl.
They shouldn't have been there and they got their asses whooped because of it.
This year they were an offensive embarrassment at Seattle to open the season and lost their best receiver in the process.
Last week at home they beat the Steelers 20-3 but 7 of those 20 were a defensive scoop and score.
In 2 week an offense that has scored 10 and 13 points.
The struggles of QB Drake Maye are obvious as he has passed for 1 touchdown while throwing 4 interceptions.
Could be he is playing behind an average offensive line that will be missing starting right guard Mike Onwenu.
This from a unit that has already given up 6 sacks this year.
At best, this is an average football team that Vegas continues to respect with elite prices.
Big mistake today.
As for the Jags, they absolutely destroyed Deshaun Watson and the Browns in week one 34-10 and were kicking the Broncos ass last week before "it" happened.
The "it", was a terrible pick by Trevor Lawrence that changed the game.
In complete control of the game up 13-6 with 1:42 to go in the 3rd quarter, they faced a 3rd at 6 at midfield when Lawrence got greedy down the left sideline.
The pick at the Bronco 36 ignited a 10 play 64 yard drive and after a missed field goal, Denver went 5 plays 56 yards for the game winning TD.
If Lawrence takes the check down right in front of him for the first down, no doubt in my mind the Jags go on to win that game.
And if that is the case, this line today is 4 1/2 and not the 2 1/2 we are laying.
Bottom line: I trust Trevor Lawrence and head coach Liam Cohen a helluva lot more than Mike Vrabel and Drake Maye. END OF STORY.
Without question Jacksonville is the better team and playing at home in that heat and humidity, that will be the difference in another tough day for Maye.
Be shocked if the Jags don't win this game by double digits.