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Sunday, September 22

50 Dime Winner # 21 of 32 - Packers (-7) over Denver 27-16

And this is what I told you.....
 
The Packers have yet to click offensively in 10-3 and 21-6 wins against the Bears and Vikings, respectively, but you can't ask for more from their defense as they lead the league in quarterback pressures with 44 through two games after getting 44 against Kirk Cousins last Sunday as Mike Pettine's 3-4 scheme is bringing the heat. Green Bay's No. 1 priority this offseason was improving its anemic pass rush and to that end the team went out and got OLBs Za'Darius Smith (2 sacks of Flacco) from the Ravens and Preston Smith (3 sacks of Flacco) from the Redskins and the duo have produced with 25 of those aforementioned 44 QB pressures. Today they get to face Joe Flacco, who is about as stationary of a quarterback you'll find in the pocket nowadays in the NFL.

Funny how coming into the season you would have thought Denver would be the team with the gaudy pass-rushing stats but that's not the case as a Bronco D led by Von Miller and Bradley Chubb has 0 sacks and 0 takeaways in losses at Oakland (and 0 again Sunday) and home to Chicago. Now that will obviously change, but I like the way the Pack is playing and I've got to believe Rodgers, who started off hot against Minnesota last week, is going to get the offense humming sooner rather than later. 

Green Bay is 12-2-1 SU in Rodgers last 15 Lambeau starts and 62-16-1 SU overall in his 79 career regular season starts at home. In those games he has a 107.8 passer rating, best in the league since 1970. He showed glimpses of having a breakout game against the Vikings last week (22-34, 209, 2 TDs) and I say it all comes together today as the Pack's momentum continues against a Denver team that's 4-12 ATS in its last 16 as a road dog with a solid 10-point.

And what was the final score? Green Bay 27-16



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Jay McNeil's Rating System

I believe the biggest mistake gamblers make is they put too much stock into win/loss percentages. They simply don't matter because every play - at least in my case and for any handicapper who is worth a grain of salt - is rated for money-management purposes.

 

I use a weighted scale - ranging from 10 dimes to 100 dimes - to rate my releases.

 

This rating system not only defines my success in terms of net profit at the end of the day, week, month or season, but it also gives you an idea of how strong each release is and how you should play it.

 

Two simple things to remember:

 

      1) In terms of ratings, clearly a 50 dime play is twice as strong

          as a 25 dime play; five times stronger than a 10 dime release.

 

      2) Base the size of your wagers on the percentage of your total

          bankroll for a given day.

 

To explain that second rule a bit further, let's say you've got $100 to play with on a Monday night and I've got a 50 dime play on the football game's side. You've got two ways to play it based on your personal bankroll allocation system. You could put all $100 down on the play because that's the maximum you're willing to risk on the game tonight. Personally, that's not how I would play it. It's a 50 Dime play. That's means it's half the size of my top-rated play, which is a 100 dimer as I noted above. So I would only be betting $50 on the play.



Again, you have to make the final decision, but either way, the biggest advantage of this easy concept: You never get in over your head by betting more than you have in your pocket.

Who is Jay McNeil?

My family moved to Vegas when I was seven. I grew up about 1/2 mile from where the Mandalay Bay now stands. You don't grow up in Sin City without knowing everything there is about gambling. Believe me, I was playing poker and betting sports long before any casino was going to let me through their doors.

 

My humble opinion: Being immersed in the gambling culture here in Las Vegas is crucial if you want to make a living betting on sports. The minute I turned 21, I started hanging out at the old Stardust sportsbook and that's where I got my greatest education from the seasoned gamblers and bookmakers, guys who were 25 to 50 years older than me. I listened and learned as they talked about spotting bad lines and how to handicap various factors into determining whether a number in football or basketball was distorted by public perception.

 

I took those lessons, learned them well, and then added another layer of knowledge thanks to something that totally escaped those old-school guys: the Internet. The world wide web allowed me to have eyes and ears at every football stadium and basketball courtside in the country. Beat-writers covering every scrimmage, every practice, every game, suddenly became my advance scouts.

 

I'm telling you straight-up: the Internet revolutionized the sports handicapping industry. I myself spend at least 4-6 hours a day scouring teams' web sites and local newspapers while handicapping. It's the difference between winning and losing.


When I have plays, you'll find them here and nowhere else online. No 800 numbers or tipsheets for me. This is my online home going forward.


I don't fear taking chances. Play big or go home. 


I don't fear losing, but I can't live with myself if I would sit here the day after knowing I didn't take a shot. That's the only regret I can't live with.


I might lose big, but I'd rather play big and win big more often than not because that's how you make money over the long term....not playing like a scared mouse.


Those that worry about losing, simply lose more than they win because fear clouds their judgment.