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Mitch Newman's Rating System

In college I had one particular finance instructor who used to say "5/3rds of all people just don't get fractions."

I think gamblers feel the same way about handicappers' ratings sometimes.

Why must they be so complicated? The entire point of a rating system is that you know how much a handicapper likes a play in relation to how much you should be wagering on it.

Ah, but there's the rub.

I'm going to rate my plays on a 10-to-100 dime system. Nice and simple, right? An 80 Dimer is twice as strong as a 40 Dimer. A 100 Dimer is a Max Wager and 2 1/2 times stronger than a 40 Dimer. 

But how does that correlate to the amount you wager? Well, there are two factors you should consider and only you have those answers:
1 - The size of your bankroll for that given day

2 - Whether you're entering the day on a positive or negative roll

Who is Mitch Newman?

I know I may not look the type, but looks can be deceiving because I got hooked on this thing called gambling probably from the minute I played my first parlay card in 10th grade.

You remember those little slips from years ago your friends would hand out in class. Pick 4 teams for $1 to win $10.

Did I ever win? Hell no, but that taste was all I needed. I graduated to betting through my first "real" bookie while in college, where I studied business. 

You hear a lot about analytics when it comes to managing and coaching teams nowadays. Numbers obviously have a huge impact when it comes to handicapping games and I certainly respect them having a business background. But you can't ignore your gut instinct, your "feel" for a game. It's that blend that's made me successful over the years.

I've used my college degree and worked in the business world, but I eventually gravitated toward the gambling industry, first working as a writer for a couple of national publications/tipsheets and then releasing my own picks to a small following I had built via a phone service. This, however, is the first time I've ever released my plays online to the masses. 

Today's Complimentary Play

Saturday free play is to ride the Bruins of Belmont to another win and cover as they play host to the 4-4 SIU Edwardsville Cougars who will be playing just their second game since December 18th due to COVID-19 postponements.

The Cougars did just defeat Tennessee State, 67-65 as the +3 point road favorites on Thursday and they do deserve some recognition for returning after over a month off with a straight up win, but they won't be facing Tennessee State here on Friday in Nashville.

Belmont just improved to 15-1 with their Thursday night home win and cover over Eastern Illinois as the Bruins made it 12 wins in a row and also made it a wallet-lining 9-2-1 against the spread in those dozen straight victories.

The Bruins do average just over 81 points per game for the season, so while they didn't hit that average in Thursday's win, their 79 points came pretty darn close. Since SIU Edwardsville has not topped 69 points in any of their 4 games played since the start of December and since this is just the Cougars second live game in over a month, I don't see them keeping this game from turning into a runaway for the host Bruins.

Not sure the visitors will be able to consistently slow nightmare matchup Nick Muszynski who is a real problem for most teams at 6'11" and can step back and knock down the outside three-point shot at over 56%. He did have an "off" night on Thursday with just 10 points and 3 boards.

Considering the Cougars did actually win for the first time in 9 series meetings since the 2013 season when they bested Belmont, 79-69 as the +23 point road dog the last time these schools met in January of 2020 - and in Nashville no less! - you can be sure the Bruins will be locked-in from the opening tip-off tonight.

Bruins make amends for that ugly loss last season with the 20 points or better win today in Music City.

(on a 1♦ to 5♦ basis)