My free NFL winner for Sunday is the Houston Texans over the Los Angeles Chargers.
The Bolts are easily the better team here, but they also just lost at home to the Jacksonville Jaguars, and we're talking about a Texans team that has been competitve through three games, covering all three. Dating back, they're also on a 5-0 ATS roll during AFC battles.
Whether or not Justin Herbert is able to play, or will play, let me tell you that coach Brandon Staley didn't think wisely by playing his franchise quarterback once the Jags put the game out of reach. I don't care that Herbert said he wanted to play, rib injuries are no joke.
And now he goes on the road to face a Texans team that has won the last two meetings and will be hungry to get its first win before Las Vegas gets its first.
And in the Chargers' plethora of injuries to three essential postions - left tackle Rashawn Slater, wide receiver Keenan Allen and edge rusher Joey Bosa - and things are a mess with this team right now.
I'm much more confident in a healthy Davis Mills, who completed 21 of 27 attempts for a career-high 77.8% for 254 yards and two touchdowns vs. 0 interceptions for 130.6 rating in his last year's 41-29 win over the Bolts.
Mills has 1,916 passing yards (273.7 per game) with 14 TDs against an interception for a 111.3 rating in seven career home starts. He also has 300 or more passing yards in four of his past six home starts, and will aim for his eighth straight at home with a 90+ rating when he hosts the injury-plagued Chargers on Sunday.
Take the points and be active in buying the half point if for some reason the number gets back in the range of +6 and +7.