Pro Football Free Picks
NFL Betting Strategy Update
By Al DeMarco - GM, Featured Handicapper
Not a free pick, but something more valuable....a discussion on betting strategy.That little quirky trend I discovered some 13 years ago regarding SU Winners covering in the first 10-13 weeks of the season....well, it went 12-4 ATS in Week 1 and 11-4-1 ATS in Week 2.
I also told you in my Video Report at the outset of the season that chalks generally dominate in Week 1 and dogs bark back in Week 2. That's exactly what happened as the favorites went 10-6 ATS in the opening week of action (two outright winners) with pups grinding their teeth in Week Two to the tune of 11-4-1 ATS (eight outrights).
This is when "dog bettors" will naturally start barking themselves about how playing the pups is the only way to go, blah, blah, blah. But history will prove them wrong again because by the end of a regular season encompassing 272 games, the spread between favorites and underdogs will be less than 20 games.
However, I've also repeatedly said there is value in placing a SMALLER wager on a pup - if that's your top play - on the Money Line if you're getting a significant take-back price (at least +140 or more) because 1) it's a smart investment and 2) over the course the season you'll find the dogs win outright around 30-35% of the time.
This week alone 8 of the 11 pups won outright. There was no significant juice in betting the Bills, Bengals, or Packers on the Money Line, and no one in their right mind thought the Raiders would upset Baltimore outright. But, look at the payouts on the Vikings (+175), Bucs (+295) or even the Browns (+145), all of whom I think were potential outright winners. Again, a smaller money line play if you liked any of those teams as your best bet would have been a wise investment strategy.
NFL Betting Strategy