$10 Bettor Up $24,845 since November
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LET’S RAISE THE BAR
60 DIME
I see this one going down to the wire.
There have been some very impressive wins across the college football landscape this year.
We're talking double digit underdogs left and right winning outright.
The largest was week one when UMASS (+29 1/2) beat Rutgers outright 37-21.
Guess who the 2nd one was? Yup, this Buffalo team week 6 at Toledo, who was 4-1 on the year winning by an average margin of 24 points.
The Bulls were getting +18 1/2 and delivered the outright win 23-8.
What made that win even more impressive is the fact Buffalo had lost 3 of their last 4 games to fall to 2-3 on the year with their 2 wins over Albany and Robert Morris.
Now you don't accidentally win a game like that against an opponent like that, there has to be some talent in there somewhere.
And you could sort of see Buffalo coming together as a team from the week before at home against Western Michigan, a game they lost 20-17 catching +13 1/2.
Off that Toledo win they came back home, won and covered their next 2.
They laid 6 1/2 against UMASS and covered in OT 25-18 and they laid 2 1/2 to Bowling Green and won 31-24.
Simply put, they are playing their best football of the year right now.
As for Miami, with exception of a blowout win at home over 1-7 Akron 34-14, all they have done in conference play is play close games.
As a 10 1/2 point home chalk lost to Bowling Green 24-20. UMASS (-6 1/2) won 20-19. Central Michigan (-3 1/2) won 28-27.
Getting close to a touchdown with this Bulls team the way they are playing right now is way too many points.
I will ride the gritty boys from upstate New York tonight.
They just aren't as good as their record.
The whole world got fooled last Sunday night, me included, when the 5-0 Chiefs rolled into Seattle as 2 1/2 point dogs and we all thought they were going to win.
Well, not only did they not win, they got their ass absolutely beat and dominated every way possible in the 20-3 loss.
Numbers don't lie: 11 first downs. 50 yards rushing. 163 passing.
They flat out got the shit kicked out of them.
Sure, they were 5-0 but the Denver win week one withstanding, the other 4 wins came against really bad teams.
Week 2 at home struggled to beat Indy in OT 33-30, at Miami week 3 it was a 17-10 game with 2 minutes to go before they got a late TD for the 24-10 win.
Week 4 at Raiders they struggled in the 30-27 win and then came the Week 6 win out of their bye at home beating the Chargers 22-6.
The combined record of those 4 teams is 7-19.
At best, this is an average football team that continues to live off past success with names like Mahomes, Kelce and coaches named Spagnuolo and Reid.
They now travel to Denver, a place they have lost the last 2 years.
A team mind you, that continues to get no respect even though they have played one of the toughest schedules in the NFL.
Of their 7 games this year, 5 have come against playoff teams from last year: Chiefs, Jags, Rams, Niners and Seahawks.
The loss to KC week one, beat J'ville at home 20-13, beat LA at home 30-26, lost at San Fran 24-14 and yes, beat Seattle at home in OT 17-14.
After watching this Chiefs team last Sunday, how do you think they would have fared with that schedule???
There isn't a single ounce of doubt in my mind the Broncos are the better TEAM.
They are playing their best ball of the year right now and have all the momentum in the world riding their 3 game winning streak.
Some numbers for you: Chiefs are 0-6 ATS 2nd of back to back road games, 2-6 ATS as a favorite after a loss and 2-7 ATS as a road favorite last 9 overall.
Broncos are 5-1 ATS as a dog after a win and 6-3 ATS at home after a win.
This game is a case of two teams heading in opposite directions and I will gladly take the one heading the right way.
That team is the Denver Broncos.
The absolute best play on the board.
First and foremost, this New England Patriots team as a whole isn't very good.
Last year with the easiest schedule in the NFL, they rode that to the Super bowl.
They shouldn't have been there and they got their asses whooped because of it.
This year they were an offensive embarrassment at Seattle to open the season and lost their best receiver in the process.
Last week at home they beat the Steelers 20-3 but 7 of those 20 were a defensive scoop and score.
In 2 week an offense that has scored 10 and 13 points.
The struggles of QB Drake Maye are obvious as he has passed for 1 touchdown while throwing 4 interceptions.
Could be he is playing behind an average offensive line that will be missing starting right guard Mike Onwenu.
This from a unit that has already given up 6 sacks this year.
At best, this is an average football team that Vegas continues to respect with elite prices.
Big mistake today.
As for the Jags, they absolutely destroyed Deshaun Watson and the Browns in week one 34-10 and were kicking the Broncos ass last week before "it" happened.
The "it", was a terrible pick by Trevor Lawrence that changed the game.
In complete control of the game up 13-6 with 1:42 to go in the 3rd quarter, they faced a 3rd at 6 at midfield when Lawrence got greedy down the left sideline.
The pick at the Bronco 36 ignited a 10 play 64 yard drive and after a missed field goal, Denver went 5 plays 56 yards for the game winning TD.
If Lawrence takes the check down right in front of him for the first down, no doubt in my mind the Jags go on to win that game.
And if that is the case, this line today is 4 1/2 and not the 2 1/2 we are laying.
Bottom line: I trust Trevor Lawrence and head coach Liam Cohen a helluva lot more than Mike Vrabel and Drake Maye. END OF STORY.
Without question Jacksonville is the better team and playing at home in that heat and humidity, that will be the difference in another tough day for Maye.
Be shocked if the Jags don't win this game by double digits.