College Football Free Picks
South Florida at EAST CAROLINA (39')
By Chris Jordan, Featured Handicapper
I like the under in Friday night's South Florida-East Carolina matchup, with the posted total sitting at 39.5. This is a meeting of two defenses that have consistently given opposing offenses problems, and both teams enter with questions about their ability to generate points.
South Florida ranks 10th nationally in scoring defense,
allowing just 14.5 points per game, and has surrendered only 10 offensive
points over its last two victories. The Bulls have also allowed an average of
just 202 total yards and 80 rushing yards during that stretch. East Carolina is
allowing 336.4 yards per game, ranking 48th nationally, and held Temple to 249
total yards in last week's 17-9 victory. The Pirates also came away with three
second-half interceptions.
The offensive matchup provides even more support for the under. South Florida has scored only three offensive touchdowns in its last two games, and quarterback Michael Van Buren's availability remains uncertain after he was injured against UAB. Backup Luke Kromenhoek rushed for 92 yards in that game but completed just 7 of 10 passes for 39 yards.
East Carolina has similar limitations. The Pirates average 24 points per game, but quarterback Mitch Griffis threw for only 130 yards against Temple, and ECU has struggled to sustain drives, ranking 129th nationally in third-down conversion percentage. The Pirates do have a productive running back in TJ Engleman Jr., but South Florida's defense has been particularly effective against the run recently.
With both offenses dealing with quarterback uncertainty and
inconsistent production, I expect a physical game with limited sustained
scoring drives. I'll take South Florida and East Carolina to stay under the
total Friday night in Greenville.
South Florida (+2') at EAST CAROLINA
By Sean Michaels, Featured Handicapper
South Florida heads to Greenville on Friday night as a small road underdog against East Carolina, and I like the points to work with the Bulls in what shapes up as a defensive battle.
The Pirates have won the last three meetings, including a 48-28 victory in 2022, but that series history shouldn't overshadow the significant differences between these teams entering Friday's matchup. East Carolina is 4-4 and coming off a 17-9 victory over Temple, while South Florida is 6-2 after defeating UAB 30-10.
The Bulls' record deserves some respect, particularly
considering they have been considerably more effective defensively than
offensively. South Florida ranks 10th nationally in scoring defense, allowing
just 14.5 points per game, and 25th in total defense at 306.6 yards per
contest. ECU allows 24.1 points and 336.5 yards per game.
The biggest concern for South Florida remains the quarterback situation. Michael Van Buren left last week's game against UAB with an injury, and head coach Brian Hartline has not disclosed whether he will be available.
If MVB cannot go it will be Luke Kromenhoek came on in relief and provided a spark with 92 rushing yards, including runs of 42 and 25 yards, but completed only 7-of-10 passes for 39 yards. The Bulls generated very little offensively, but their defense picked up the slack, recording four sacks and forcing two fumbles that were returned for touchdowns. Defensive end C.J. Hicks was particularly impressive, producing a program-record four sacks.
ECU quarterback Mitch Griffis threw for just 130 yards
against Temple, and the Pirates needed three second-half interceptions to
secure their nine-point victory. Neither offense has been particularly
consistent, which makes the defensive matchup especially important.
East Carolina is a different team at Dowdy-Ficklen Stadium, where the Pirates have been considerably more productive, and their three consecutive victories in this series deserve consideration, but the last meeting comes back in 2022, so I won't allow series history to dictate how I play this game.
South Florida's defensive numbers are difficult to ignore. The Bulls have allowed just 14.5 points per game this season and have surrendered only three offensive touchdowns over their last two victories. They also have the advantage of facing an ECU offense that averages just 186.5 passing yards per game and has struggled to generate consistent production.
I certainly do not expect a particularly attractive
offensive performance from either side, especially with Van Buren's
availability in question, but South Florida has the defensive personnel to keep
this game close enough to give the visiting Bulls a real chance at the outright
win come the closing minutes.
Nebraska at ILLINOIS (+4')
By Rick Torino, Featured Handicapper
I believe the wrong team is favored in this Friday night Big Ten battle in Champaign!
Illinois is the side I want as a home underdog, with the Fighting Illini catching over a field goal against a Nebraska team that has lost three straight games after opening the season 5-0.
The Huskers have repeatedly failed to finish games, and last week's 17-10 loss to Washington was another example. Nebraska had opportunities to put the game away but couldn't turn its yardage advantage into points, and Anthony Colandrea's third interception was returned for a touchdown.
The bigger concern is that Nebraska's offense has scored fewer than 17 points in each of its last three games, so the math of laying about 4 1/2 points doesn't really make sense to me.
Illinois, meanwhile, has won three straight, including
victories over Michigan State, Oregon and Maryland. The Illini also won the
last meeting, 31-24 in overtime at Nebraska in 2024.
The return of quarterback Katin Houser gives Illinois a significant boost. He came back against Maryland and completed 18 of 32 passes for 223 yards and a touchdown, helping lead the game-winning drive in the 20-17 victory. Illinois also ran for 184 yards, with Javari Barnett breaking a 64-yard touchdown run, while the offensive line has done a good job keeping its quarterback upright, ranking ninth nationally in fewest tackles for loss allowed and 13th in fewest sacks allowed.
The Illini defense has also shown improvement, allowing
Maryland only three points and 99 yards over the final 26:10. Nebraska
certainly has a capable running game, ranking third in the Big Ten with 186.6
rushing yards per game, and its defense is a strength. But Illinois has enough
balance offensively to make the Huskers defend the entire field, and the Illini
have been playing their best football at the right time.
Illinois is 15-4 at home over the last three seasons, and Bret Bielema's team has won three consecutive Big Ten games. With Houser back, an improving Illinois defense, a productive ground game and the home-field advantage, I see a team capable of winning this game outright. I'll take Illinois plus the points.