Premium Picks


RECENT RESULTS

Sunday, Oct. 24

600♦ Over Chiefs-Titans : Loss

Saturday, Oct. 23

1500♦ TCU : Loss

Friday, Oct. 22

400♦ Lakers : Loss

Thursday, Oct. 21

600♦ Browns : Won

Wednesday, Oct. 20

500♦ Over Coastal/App State : Loss

Tuesday, Oct. 19

300♦ Lakers : Loss

Monday, Oct. 18

300♦ Red Sox : Won

Sunday, Oct. 17

400♦ Football Team : Loss

Saturday, Oct. 16

500♦ Arizona State : Loss

Friday, Oct. 15

1000♦ Oregon : Loss

Thursday, Oct. 14

800♦ Dodgers : Won

Tuesday, Oct. 12

300♦ UL Lafayette : Won


Super Bowl Winner # 13 of 16

600♦ Title Game
Winner # 3 in a Row

Tampa Bay (+3) OUTRIGHT 31-9 over K.C.

MATCHING my 600♦ Title Game Moneyline Lock in 2020,
Kansas City (-125) 31-20 over San Francisco

MATCHING my 600♦ Title Game Total Lock in 2019
Rams-Patriots stayed Under by 40 Points

Here is what I had to say about Tampa Bay in its championship win:

Tom Brady has advanced to 10 championships as a professional football player in his life, and finally got to do something he's never done before leading up to the big game: wake up in own bed. Okay, so the Tampa Bay Buccaneers stayed in a hotel on Saturday night and will be bused to the stadium today to ensure there is a neutral-site feel.

Ha! Big deal. At Brady's age, it's a nice change of pace for him to be able to stay home the past two weeks, along with his teammates.

The Kansas City Chiefs, meanwhile, practiced one week at home, spent the past week in Tampa, have dealt with the off-field distractions of coach Andy Reid's son Britt, and now face one of the greatest athletes of all time.

Yes, the Chiefs are the defending champs, and we saw what they were able to do when dialed in when last year, but as I told you then, the San Francisco 49ers were a farce with the competition it faced and a quarterback I didn't believe in.

I believe in Brady. At home.

The Buccaneers roll into this game on a seven-game win streak behind an offense that has produced 29 touchdowns - 19 passing, 10, rushing - and that has outscored teams by a margin of nearly 14 points.'

Offensive-minded coach Bruce Arians undoubtedly is having fun drawing up plays for Brady, who still looks unbreakable. And when you talk about balance, how are you not impresse by an offense that dominated through the air - the second-most productive pass attack - and was complemente by a less-than glamorous blue-collar rushing unit that still managed to score 16 TDs?

Tampa Bay scored on 47.8% of its possessions, sixth-most in the league, and it's limited the turnovers to just 8.9% of its drives, a league sixth-fewest. In Kansas City's two losses - to Las Vegas and the Chargers - its defense produced just one turnover, while the teams generated 78 points on 906 yards of offense - 627 through the air and 279 on the ground. Sounds like dominant air attacks and blue-collar rushing games.

Sound familiar?

I also think Tampa Bay will come in a bit more battle-tested, after the second and third playoff wins came in New Orleans and in Green Bay against league MVP Aaron Rodgers. Overall three straight road wins, and now the Bucs get to play at home.

The Chiefs, meanwhile, scored on five consecutive drives in the AFC Championship, the Bills couldn't answer with their young quarterback, and we saw Kansas City's lethal duo of Patrick Mahomes-Travis Kelce do what it does best. The week before, a 22-17 grinder against the Browns.

While this may be the league's most terrifying offense, keep in mind the Chiefs closed the season playing just two playoff teams over the final seven weeks: the Bucs and the Saints.

Plus, the Buccaneers roll into the big game after allowing a league eighth-fewest 355 points, and sixth-lowest 5,234 yards.

With the No. 1 rushing defense across the board, the Chiefs better be worried about defensive coordinator Todd Bowles, who knows what it takes to stop a high-octane offense in the Super Bowl. He was the starting free safety in Super Bowl XXII, won by Washington 42-10 over Denver, which had the fourth-highest scoring offense (379) and tallied a league second-best 5,624 yards.

And he would love to help Tampa Bay get revenge for a 27-24 loss on Nov. 29 in Kansas City.

The Bucs registered 47 sacks during the regular season, and seven more in three road playoff games - including five in Green Bay against Rodgers in the frigid weather everyone said would be a problem. Bowles' defensive unit has only gotten better and better, clamping things down in the trenches, and limiting 10 straight opponents to 27 points or less - an average of 22.1 points per game.

I'm rolling with the HOME team in this one, the one that woke up in the comforts of their own homes the past two weeks, minus last night when they checked into a hotel so they could wake up and bus over to their stadium.

Bucs for the cover.
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Chris Jordan's Rating System

 

Everyone should be on the same page for each new campaign and how to approach each season.

 

You first must understand the Kelly Criterion, sometimes referred to as the Kelly formula; it's a blueprint I like to use to maximize the long-term growth rate of our bankroll, using repeated gambles of the variety of ratings I give out.

 

That criterion says an aggressive gambler should wager a set percentage of his bankroll, pertaining to the advantage (or rating system in this case) he feels he has over the game itself.

 

For those of you who play blackjack when visiting casinos, you may do the same thing in determining there is a one percent advantage over the dealer, and wager 1 percent of the total bankroll.

 

The key thing to remember is determining the percentage your using, and the maximum you'd be willing to risk on the top rating you will find here, which is the 1,000♦ Power Play.


On a daily basis you will find my plays ranging from from 100♦ and 1,000♦, but well within percentages you can effectively spread your wagers. When you do see the rating system on plays upgraded to a higher level, I will always talk about managing the bankroll accordingly.

 

Remember, a 1,000♦ play does not indicate a specific amount for everyone in general, it means if you're absolute biggest play you're willing to make is a nickel - that is your gauge with this rating system.

 

You need only divide accordingly from your absolute maximum amount into whatever the rating is, based on 1,000♦ being the highest rating.

Overall, you will find that I like to keep it consistent day-to-day so you know exactly when I'm stepping out on a big play.

 

Please follow these ratings accordingly.

 

IMPORTANT NOTE:

 

The occasional 2,000♦, 3,000♦ or BLANK CHECK releases are games I feel are extreme value for the price, or in Kelly Criterion theory - is more of an advantage over the book.

 

I have always personally played a Blank Check game FIVE TIMES THE SIZE of my regular maximum bet. So, for example, on day I am releasing a Blank Check Winner, one 1,000♦ play and three 200♦ picks, a player with a maximum wager of $500 would wager the following:

 

Blank Check play - $2,500

 

1,000♦ Plays - $500

 

200♦ Plays - $100 each

 

With the vig, you would have a total of $3,630 in action.

 

Hope this helps in regards to money management!