Premium Picks

6th Ever 
100 Dime 
NFL Play of my Career

Chiefs beat Tennessee

And here's what I told my customers:

The Chiefs stared down adversity (a 24-0 deficit to Houston) and kicked its ass seven ways to Sunday a week ago in one of the most stirring comeback wins I've ever witnessed in all my years watching pro football. The Bills' comeback, led by Frank Reich, from a 35-3 deficit to beat the Oilers 41-38 in overtime in a wild card game back in 1993 might have been larger, but to me KC's rally was far more dramatic.

With that being said, do you really think the Chiefs are going to be worried or scared just because Tennessee is coming off upsets of New England and Baltimore?

Forget about Derrick Henry's incredible roll and instead focus on the fact that the Titans are playing a 4th straight road game dating back to their regular season finale at Houston. KC, on the other hand, enjoyed a bye week and is now home for a second straight week. And it's the Chiefs that are more acclimated to the frigid temperatures (around 20 degrees with a wind chill in the single digits) expected at Arrowhead today than the Nashville-based Titans.

Tennessee did win the first meeting at home in Week 10 by a 35-32 score, but it was Kansas City that dominated the game offensively, outgaining the Titans 530-371 in total yards with a 37:52 to 22:08 time of possessions edge with Patrick Mahomes throwing for 446 yards and 3 TDs.

Why did the Chiefs lose? Because they had to settle for field goals instead of touchdowns when they reached the red zone. Does that happen at home today? Ask the Texans.

Tennessee dominated New England and Baltimore without needing much from Ryan Tannehill because both those teams' passing attacks left a lot to be desired. Not the case with Mahomes, who shredded Houston's defense thanks to Travis Kelce (10 catches, 134 yards) last Sunday, and has so many options available to pick apart a poor Titans pass D.

KC's defense has also played much better since the first meeting. During its 7-game win streak it's allowed only 8 offensive TDs with two of them coming in garbage time in victories against the Raiders and Chargers. 

Tennessee is the 5th team to win its wild card and divisional round games as a dog of 4+ points. Those other teams, though, went 0-4 SU and 1-3 ATS when they advanced to the conference title game. Those negative trends continue today and I don't think this game is going to be close as Kansas City rolls 34-16.

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Chuck O'Brien's Rating System

I'm going to keep this very simple; I don't want you coming to the site with a slide rule and calculator trying to figure out how to play my picks - I just want you to get down on them ASAP.

 

My picks will be rated on a 10 dime to 100 dime scale so you can effectively understand my money management system.

 

The 10-to-100 scale is simply a weighted scale to let you know where a 40 dime release, for example, rates in the big picture. So, for example, an 80 dime play is twice as strong as a 40 dime play. And a 60 dime play is three times stronger than a 20 dime play, etc.

 

Now how much you personally wager on these selections is a decision you should be making based on how big your bankroll is for a given time period (day, week, month or season). You need to determine what percentage of your bankroll you're willing to risk and then look at how I've rated my pick on the 10 dime to 100 dime scale to realize what portion of that bankroll you should be putting in play.

 

Please - and this I beg of you guys - please follow my ratings; follow my bankroll strategies. That will be the difference between winning and losing. If you don't use foresight when placing your wagers, you could foolishly put yourself in a deep hole from which their is no escape no matter how much I win for you.

 

Who Is Chuck O'Brien?

I’m Boston born and bred, a product of a working class Irish family consisting of five sons who lived and breathed sports 24/7, 365 days a year.   


I grew up watching Carlton Fisk, Jim Rice and Freddy Lynn at Fenway and Bird, McHale and DJ at the Garden. But by high school my love of sports turned from collecting football and baseball cards to passing out parlay cards to my friends (and a few teachers).   


I don’t know if many of you can understand this, but growing up where I did and as I did, gambling on sports was a way of life. I can remember when I was six-years-old my Dad and uncles discussing betting NFL games at Christmas dinner. I knew what a pointspread was and what it meant to cover the number long before I got to junior high. And trust me, “Uncle Billy” wasn’t one of my Mom or Dad’s brothers; he was my pop’s bookie for probably 15 years until he passed away.   


I’m not going to lie to you, college wasn’t for me. After high school I went the trade school route and became a licensed HVAC technician. You want to talk about finding gamblers at every turn. My God, all the guys talked about was sports and betting and my opinion was solicited day after day.   


So how did I turn into a professional handicapper? Well, you try to make it on $37,000 a year with a wife, two kids and a mortgage in Boston.


I was betting – and winning – to supplement my income when it dawned on me that I could make money selling my selections to all the guys who had been hitting me up for all these years for free. I started small, charging $25 a week to about 10 guys. Those 10 turned into 150 within two years. And two years after that I was out of the HVAC biz and a full-time handicapper. 


Fast forward to 2007. I had met Al DeMarco while he was appearing weekly as an analyst on SNY Daily News Live in New York. He told me about this website and how he wanted to bring top-notch handicappers at an affordable price to the masses. 


I joined the site in April of 2008.


And then I made a really stupid move.


At the end of January in 2013, I quit


Why? Because I was dumb enough to listen to a couple of guys who promised me the world if I went in with them and started a new handicapping site.


BIG MISTAKE.


All lies and broken promises. I got conned. Even went a few months with no paychecks. Finally I quit right after the NBA playoffs ended in June of 2015. I was once again selling my picks to individual clients until I reached out to Al again and he offered me another shot, which I truly appreciate. 


Then in August of 2017, my contract expired and I was out on my own again. But starting in April of 2018, I'm back because I've found this is a great site to be releasing my plays on and it's my exclusive internet home once more.


Am I still a huge Red Sox fan? You can bet a Curt Schilling bloody sock I am. But I don’t bet based on my emotions.You must be emotionless when you’re a handicapper; no favoritism allowed.That’s the key to my success; my ability to separate myself as a fan versus a handicapper.   


No ridiculous promises from me; I know as well as you do that no one wins everyday in this business. But you watch this page daily. Watch the winners far outpace the losers. Watch the net profit add up. And watch me make us both money because I’m a player, just like you.